1980 Solar changes = Global warming

GENEVA (AP) -- The hole in the earth's ozone layer is growing faster than

ever and is already twice the size it was this time last year, the U.N.

weather agency said Tuesday.

Ozone, a gas in the stratosphere, prevents harmful ultraviolet radiation

from reaching the earth. Its depletion, caused in large part by industrial

chemicals, is believed to increase the incidence of skin cancer and

cataracts.

The hole, first observed over Antarctica in the 1980s, has reappeared each

September and October since then. With the onset of winter in the polar

region, temperatures plung in the stratosphere and hasten ozone depletion.

The hole is getting bigger despite a reduction in ozone-destroying

chemicals such s chlorine and bromine because these chemicals have a life

of 60 to 100 years.

So far the hole has expanded to 3.9 million square miles -- roughly the

size of Europe -- according to the World Meteorological Organization.

At that rate, the hole could surpass the record 24 million square miles

it reached at the end of September last year, the U.N. agency said.

The accelerated spread of the hole has surprised but not alarmed experts,

who predict the ozone layer will get even worse before it recovers.

"From the end of July through August and early September ozone levels in

this polar region have depleted by an average of 1 percent a day... more

rapidly than ever before," said Rumen Bojkov, special adviser on ozone to

the agency.

"Every 1 percent drop in ozone means roughly 1.3 percent to 1.5 percent

more ultraviolet radiation reaching the surface," said Bojkov.

He said each 1 percent increase in ultraviolet radiation is thought to

increase chances of skin cancer and eye cataracts by 2 percent.

The U.N. weather agency has been monitoring ozone levels in Antarctica

for the last 40 years. Already in August, the region had 30 to 35 percent

less ozone than in 1957, before depletion began.

The ozone layer also has deteriorated over Europe and North America, but

to a lesser extent. The agency says ozone levels over Europe and North

America have diminished 10 percent to 15 percent since 1957. At the same

time, ultraviolet radiation has increased 13 percent to 15 percent.

"This is something surplus to the normal ultraviolet everyone is getting,

" Bojkov said. "It is undesirable because it is a cumulative. Everyone

collects more radiation over a lifetime. It is not dangerous at the

moment but it could be, depending on how long such conditions continue."

Without the Montreal Protocol, the 1987 agreement by countries to reduce

worldwide use of ozone-destroying chemicals, Europe and North America

would have over 35 percent more ultraviolet radiation by now, he said.

The organization expects the ozone decline to become more severe the next

10 years, reducing levels over Europe and North America by at least

another 5 percent.

After that, the depletion is expected to slow down before starting to

recover around 2040. "We expect ozone levels to recover, but not before

2050 or 2070, and that is if everyone sticks to the rules," said Bojkov.

*So this means in 1987 we knew the sun was changing and that solar system wide climates would change. Koto accords were stopgap to the inevitable

*